Thank you Dr. Leary, and yes, as we add cohesion and the beads have a stronger connection to one another, it is more likely that a given avalanche will be larger in size.

Thank you Dr. Leary, and yes, as we add cohesion and the beads have a stronger connection to one another, it is more likely that a given avalanche will be larger in size.

Thank you Dr. Lehman! I think a good example of how we can translate this to a real world example is with an avalanche warning. When avalanches occur cannot be predicted, but we do understand conditions that can cause them, which would allow for caution to be taken at a Ski Resort for example.

Thank you Dr. Lehman! I think a good example of how we can translate this to a real world example is with an avalanche warning. When avalanches occur cannot be predicted, but we do understand conditions that can cause them, which would allow for caution to be taken at a Ski Resort for example.

Good answer, Henry, and nice job overall!
I would just add to Carlos, that just because we can say WHY an avalanche happened AFTERWARDS, but that’s different from ever being able to say *in advance* that an avalanche is going to happen on the next bead drop.
So I would say that it is deterministic in the sense that Newton’s laws are governing it, and in retrospect we can say — oh yes, this bead experienced a force at this angle and so it moved here, so there was an avalanche. But knowing in advance that this particular bead was *about* to experience that particular force and so therefore there *would* be an avalanche is totally different.

Good answer, Henry, and nice job overall!
I would just add to Carlos, that just because we can say WHY an avalanche happened AFTERWARDS, but that’s different from ever being able to say *in advance* that an avalanche is going to happen on the next bead drop.
So I would say that it is deterministic in the sense that Newton’s laws are governing it, and in retrospect we can say — oh yes, this bead experienced a force at this angle and so it moved here, so there was an avalanche. But knowing in advance that this particular bead was *about* to experience that particular force and so therefore there *would* be an avalanche is totally different.

While adding beads to the pile at a constant rate, the avalanche is in a critical state. In the case of the bead pile, it has the properties of both a solid and liquid while in its critical state. While in this state, it can avalanche at any time without outside forces or tuning parameters. So while we cannot predict when an avalanche will occur, we can over time come to understand what causes various kinds of avalanches.

While adding beads to the pile at a constant rate, the avalanche is in a critical state. In the case of the bead pile, it has the properties of both a solid and liquid while in its critical state. While in this state, it can avalanche at any time without outside forces or tuning parameters. So while we cannot predict when an avalanche will occur, we can over time come to understand what causes various kinds of avalanches.